Without the need to re-invent the wheel, we borrow a few words from a renowned global fund manager to describe the investor psyche that has broadly contributed to the sharp decline in prices of almost all asset classes in the last four months - "too much confidence, too little fear" led to a sort of bubble in gold, debt, commodities and select pockets of stock markets. Over the past four months, the Indian currency depreciated 10% vs. the greenback; most debt funds lost 5 to 10% of their value o...

This series comes after 4 long months during which market behavior was nothing less than volatile. Post the reforms process initiated by this government in Oct-12, the markets rallied sharply in hope of improvement in macros as well as business environment. The big differentiating factor from previous short rallies of 2012 was that even low quality mid-caps started participating in the rally. While it would have been only natural to assume that economic recovery was on cards, what most of us do ...

What’s our market view?  'Rejuvenation in bad times' would be the most appropriate way to describe the past two months - the government suddenly woke up from a slumber, the market participants gave a 2000 point salute to the government, voices in the dealing rooms got louder, celebrations on the sales floor was no longer a crime and last but not the least, our mailbox had the maximum investment related queries. The point of highlighting these observations is simple - interest in markets is hi...

What’s our market view? Although discussing stocks is a far more interesting and conclusive activity than macro worrying, we are forced to indulge in the uninteresting part first. Macro environment has shown little signs of improvement since our last interaction - policy paralysis persists even as the overhang of presidential elections have subsided, inflation and fiscal deficit remain elevated, industrial growth continues to touch new lows, and currency fails to climb back above the Rs55/$ m...

What’s our market view? We will try and be brave to start the market view on a positive note by re-iterating the cliched chant - 'in fear lies opportunity'. After the sharp market rally in early part of the year, equity markets have resolutely drifted down. The concerns that have led to this are exactly the same (we am not even using the word similar) that were prevalent in 2011 - the policy paralysis, the probability of a European debt default, inflation, high commodity prices and India's bu...

What’s our market view? Since our last mail, markets have witnessed a ferocious fall and a stronger rebound. We use the term rebound as markets have moved up significantly despite weak economy and muted earnings performance. While liquidity has been the primary reason for sharp run-up in Indian and global stock markets, market participants have started attributing it to under-valuation, possibility of resolution of Euro-zone crisis, reversal of interest rate cycle, policy action, etc. It may ...

Markets have been going through a rough patch and it’s natural to get scared and sit out. However, it’s the only time when you get excellent businesses at cheap valuations. Which sectors/ themes do we like? We specifically like a leading jewellery co, air-cooler maker and a pressure-cooker manufacturer. We find them to be some-what market agnostic and should slowly be bought from a 2 to 5 year perspective. The underlying belief is that the much talked about Indian Consumption Theme is h...