Memo 32 – Investing through interesting times!

Memo 32 - Investing through interesting times! A complete victory over Covid seems at least a few months away, but that has not stopped the stock markets from making new highs yet again. The 2nd wave made little dent on the markets even though it had much deeper impact on lives & livelihood of large number of Indians. The divergence seems even stronger when we see that unemployment rate in India is stubbornly high but most start-ups are facing unprecedented attrition as well as wage inflation! ...
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Memo 31 – Market View: Pessimism, Scepticism, Optimism and Euphoria!

Memo 31 – Market View: Pessimism, Scepticism, Optimism and Euphoria! The roller coaster of 2020 is resolutely behind us – Covid concerns are fading, life is bouncing back towards normalcy, our favourite restaurants & our household help are back in action, government & central banks are providing unconditional support to the economy and, stock markets are at least 20% higher than pre-Covid levels! One may be seduced to think that it’s surely a party time for investors. Well, life is never so s...
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Memo 30 – Market View: 100 Days & Counting!

It’s been 100 days to the lockdown and Covid19 is far from over. To add to this, there are tens of things to worry about – Will our kids forget the real world? Can our domestic help come back? Will our favourite restaurants, cinemas, parks, gyms re-open? Will our vacation travel resume? Will our employers survive this phase? But clearly, we are better prepared and slightly wiser too – we know that social distancing works, recovery rates are very high, medical infrastructure is getting better,...
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Memo 29 – Market View: Once in a Lifetime! Corona!

The Corona scare has not only disrupted normal life, but has resulted in a sharp downfall in stocks across the world. Indian stock markets and other world markets too have declined upto 30% in last few weeks. This has been the sharpest fall in such a short time frame - partly because of the uncertain nature of the beast that we are dealing with (Corona) and partly because of the large algorithmic trades from the developed countries. Based on our individual personalities, some people will see th...
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Memo 28 – Market View: And we all Fall Down!

“You can either have good news or good price, but you can rarely get both” There is lot of bad news around the stock markets & the economy. However, this can itself create some good news – that you can go out and get a large discount on practically anything – stocks, bonds, homes, offices, cars, bikes, clothes, etc. Economic slowdown - Fifteen months and still counting It’s been fifteen long months since the economic slowdown started and it has only intensified across sectors – electricity, r...
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Memo 27 – Market View: Feast & Famine at the same time!

Feast and Famine at the same time The only thing that is predictable about the stock markets is its unpredictability in the short term. The stock market indices not only touched new life time highs, and they did so in the face of India’s worst bond market crisis. However, there was no celebration this time. As a matter of fact, stock & mutual fund portfolios of most investors are nowhere near all time highs. “Josh” among investors is low to say the least :) The key reason for the above ...
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Memo 26 – Market View: The Litmus Test – Over for India, but Continues for You!

It would be an understatement to say that a lot has happened between the previous article dated 18th Sep, 2018 – Memo 25: Market View – Who Shall Pass the Litmus Test? and this one Memo 26. The stock market decline that started in Feb, 2018 reached its nadir in October, 2018, with the panic spreading to bond markets as well. Interest rates spiked; currency went into free fall, touching almost Rs75/$; petrol prices touched an all-time high of Rs. 90/litre. Timely government intervention & sharp d...
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Memo 25 – Market View – Who shall pass the litmus test?

Let us start this note with the small caveat that we usually put at the end of all our articles – “Equity as an asset class can be extremely rewarding in the long term. However, only those individuals who can bear the interim volatility should invest in equities”. After almost four years of relatively smooth ride, this “interim volatility” is very much here and this could well be the litmus test of the investor in “you”. The reason for terming this phase as litmus test is because this will be t...
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Memo 24 – Market View – Separating Men from the Boys!

After almost four years of steady rise, the past few months have been rather challenging for Indian stock markets. The thousands of whatsapp groups which were buzzing with new recommendations every day have become unusually silent; the newspapers and TV anchors are no longer talking about multi-baggers and public personalities are no longer boasting about their winning bets. Let’s take a moment to understand why the euphoria suddenly turned into fear. The damage at the index level looks small (...
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Memo 23 – 11,000 is Just A Number!

11,000 is just a number! We will take the liberty to borrow a few lines from our June 2017 article titled “10,000 is just a number”, where we discussed at length that the Indian stock markets are headed much higher in the coming days. It’s almost a déjà vu as Indian stock markets made fresh highs and NIFTY crossed 11,000 for the first time. As in the past, only a few are celebrating this feat. Through this article, we want to specifically address the three reasons why folks like us are not ce...
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