Memo 24 – Market View – Separating Men from the Boys!

After almost four years of steady rise, the past few months have been rather challenging for Indian stock markets. The thousands of whatsapp groups which were buzzing with new recommendations every day have become unusually silent; the newspapers and TV anchors are no longer talking about multi-baggers and public personalities are no longer boasting about their winning bets. Let’s take a moment to understand why the euphoria suddenly turned into fear. The damage at the index level looks small (...
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Memo 23 – 11,000 is Just A Number!

11,000 is just a number! We will take the liberty to borrow a few lines from our June 2017 article titled “10,000 is just a number”, where we discussed at length that the Indian stock markets are headed much higher in the coming days. It’s almost a déjà vu as Indian stock markets made fresh highs and NIFTY crossed 11,000 for the first time. As in the past, only a few are celebrating this feat. Through this article, we want to specifically address the three reasons why folks like us are not ce...
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Memo 22 – Bitcoins – Better or Bitter?

While we claim no expert insights or inclination on this topic, the record number of queries that we have received over past two months have pushed us to write on it. The interesting commonality to all these queries is the “left out” feeling. People have almost stopped short of asking"I don't understand anything about bitcoins but is it okay to buy them?  Am I missing something big if I don't buy them?" Again, we are no expert on bitcoins or block chain, so allow us to borrow some insights fr...
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Memo 21 – Too many opinions, too little wisdom

Much to our surprise, we received record number of "WhatsApp forwards" over the past 30 days, highlighting the failure of current government and the severe economic slowdown that India is staring at. The surprise was not in the content of these messages but the fact that these messages were forwarded by friends working in areas that have got little to do with day to day economic news. Some of them even went to the extent of asking if their investments in stock markets were at risk and if they sh...
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Memo 20 – 10,000 is just a number!

Marilyn Monroe, the sensation of 1960s, once famously said “if you can’t handle me at my worst, then you sure as hell don’t deserve me at my best”. I am forced to correlate this with the Indian stock markets - the folks who endured the worst (demonetization) phase are now enjoying the best times as far as their financial health is concerned. Stock markets have been making new highs every week and NIFTY, the benchmark index, crossed 10,000 for the first time in Indian history. The ironic part abo...
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Memo 19 – From famine to feast!

Steve Martin, an American actor, once famously said “the public has a short memory, that’s why we can make terrible movies and still get back in business after two years”. It’s been just 150 days since the much criticized demonetization exercise ended but the swing in sentiments have been nothing short of incredulous. Be it the media or ourwhatsapp messengers, the tone has clearly changed from impatience, anger and despair to hope, opportunity and optimism. The data coming out of corporate In...
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Memo 18 – Opportunity or Adversity?

While there is no disputing the fact that last three months were tough for most of India, few things still managed to hit an all time high – number of whatsapp messages on our phones, the number of people expressing their opinions, the number of counter-opinions and the intensity of media’s rhetoric! It was information overload at its best. Relentless media coverage of the long queues & deaths at the ATMs, pictures of deserted mandis& trade markets, farmer distress, deaths at hospitals d...
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Memo 17: Special Edition – Demonetization

We started 2014 with a lot of hope, expecting the Modi government to come out with big bang reforms. However, there was initial disappointment as the government did not do anything big-bang and continued with its policy of taking small steps towards a better India. And suddenly, we had a big bang day-before yesterday! The government's master stroke to eradicate black money and transform India into a cashless economy will throw up huge opportunities in times to come (of course there will be some ...
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Memo 16 – All Time High

It’s been 3 months since we were all discussing the negative implications of BREXIT, REXIT and the other fancily coined terms. While BREXIT has had some impact on globally focused technology companies like Infosys & Wipro, India as a whole seems to be emerging stronger. This has forced dozens of global investors to look at India in a positive light and some of them have even gone far enough to call India as “the bright spot in darkness”. This talk has been backed by record investments made b...
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Memo 15 – India Unbound

Having dealt with too much of market volatility during the week, I decided to start my Saturday in a lighter way by spending some time on Facebook. To my surprise, the Facebook updates were not the usual “happy couple, happy family” types but were replete with opinions on newly coined fancy words like REXIT, BREXIT and NEXIT. While it’s only natural to worry about or have an opinion on popular subjects, we doubt if any one of us has the capability to comprehend the short term or the long term...
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